Meta-analyses on progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in triple-negative breast cancer

Takehiro Hirai, Asuka Nemoto, Yoshinori Ito, Masaaki Matsuura

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Scopus citations

Abstract

Purpose: Earlier studies suggest progression-free survival (PFS) may be used as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival (OS) in metastatic breast cancer, which could shorten follow-up duration and speed up assessment of treatment effects. However, to our knowledge, the association between them is still unclear in advanced or metastatic triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Methods: A literature-based meta-analysis followed by correlation analysis was conducted in advanced or metastatic TNBC. Weighted multiple regression analysis was then used to test the strength of the association between medians of PFS and OS, and the association between HRPFS and HROS. Results: Fourteen randomized clinical trials published between January 2007 and August 2019, 31 median pairs for PFS and OS, and 17 pairs for HRPFS and HROS from 3,880 patients were selected. The Pearson correlation coefficient between medians of PFS and OS was 0.84 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68–0.92, p < 0.001), and the correlation coefficient between HRPFS and HROS was 0.86 (95% CI 0.63–0.95, p < 0.001). Weighted multiple regression analysis showed HRPFS was the most significant predictor of HROS among covariates analyzed (p < 0.001). Both the medians of PFS and OS correlation, and the HRPFS and HROS correlation were 0.79 (p < 0.001), 0.80 (p = 0.001), respectively, in the 11 trials excluding immunotherapy and bevacizumab-based therapy trials. Conclusions: Our analysis suggests PFS can be strongly correlated with OS and considered a valid surrogate endpoint for OS in advanced or metastatic TNBC.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)189-198
Number of pages10
JournalBreast Cancer Research and Treatment
Volume181
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 May 2020

Keywords

  • Meta-analysis
  • Overall survival
  • Progression-free survival
  • Surrogate endpoint
  • Triple-negative breast cancer

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Meta-analyses on progression-free survival as a surrogate endpoint for overall survival in triple-negative breast cancer'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this